At a time when the world’s cities are bursting with massive increases in population, the Atlas of Urban Expansion is a comprehensive guide to the past and future characteristics of metropolitan growth. In 2010 more than half of the world’s total population lived in cities, and this share is expected to increase to 70 percent or more by 2050. The world’s urban population is expected to increase from 3.5 billion in 2010 to 6.2 billion in 2050, and almost all of this growth is expected to take place in less-developed countries. Cities in developed countries will add only 160 million people to their populations during this period, while Cities in developing countries will need to absorb 15 times that number, or close to 2.6 billion people, thereby doubling their total urban population of 2.6 billion in 2010. Given the expected decline in urban densities, these cities are likely to more than triple their developed land areas by 2050.

Increased global awareness is needed to better understand and plan for this massive expansion of cities in developing countries, Angel says. Local and national governments, civic institutions, international organizations, and concerned citizens must make minimum adequate preparations. For example, it is vital that cities acquire the rights-of-way for arterial roads that can carry public transport and trunk infrastructure and protect selected open spaces from encroachment in advance of the coming expansion.

The main objective of this Atlas of Urban Expansion is to increase understanding and help residents, policy makers, and researchers around the world come to terms with the expected global urban expansion in the coming decades. The call to action is urgent, as the urbanization process now underway will be largely completed by the end of the 21st century. “Most people who desire to live in urban areas will already be in them by 2100, but by that time it will be too late to act,” Angel says. “If the land required for public works or public open spaces is not protected from encroachment before it is developed, it will be next to impossible to ensure the orderly development of cities to make them more efficient, more equitable, and more sustainable.”

The Atlas in book form introduces the project and presents two sets of full-color maps and a set of raw data tables. The first map section contains pairs of urban land cover maps from circa 1990 and 2000, representing a global sample of 120 cities. The second map section includes composite maps of a global representative sample of 30 cities, showing the historical expansion of their urbanized areas from 1800 to 2000. In both sections, the maps shown are paired with numerical and graphical data, making it possible to compare cities in terms of their metric values on key attributes of urban expansion. The third section contains four extensive tables of urban, national, and regional data for each of the 120 cities.

The companion volume, Planet of Cities, also authored by Lincoln Institute visiting fellow Shlomo “Solly” Angel, lays out a series of recommendations for making adequate room for increased urban population growth, rather than emphasizing containment; adjusting densities within a sustainable range; providing an ample supply of urban land for decent housing; and securing land necessary for public streets, public infrastructure networks, and public open spaces well in advance of development. Buy Atlas of Urban Expansion.

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Nearly 4,000 cities on our planet today have populations of 100,000 people or more. We know their names, locations, and approximate populations from maps and other data sources, but there is little comparable knowledge about all these cities, and none that can be described as rigorously scientific. Planet of Cities together with its companion volume, Atlas of Urban Expansion, contributes to developing a science of cities based on studying all these cities together—not in the abstract, but with a view to preparing them for their coming expansion.

The book puts into question the main tenets of the familiar Containment Paradigm, also known as smart growth, urban growth management, or compact city, that is designed to contain boundless urban expansion, typically decried as sprawl. It examines this paradigm in a broader global perspective and shows it to be deficient and practically useless in addressing the central questions now facing expanding cities outside the United States and Europe. Buy Planet of Cities in paperback or e-book formats.

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In a rapidly urbanizing world — over half the world’s population lives in urban areas, including many millions in informal settlement — the large cities of the developing world in particular are expanding. Yet there is little in the way of planning and preparation for this explosive growth in urban population. Making Room for a Planet of Cities is a comprehensive and original analysis of the quantitative dimensions of past, present, and future global urban land cover, culminating in a proposed new paradigm for preparing for explosive growth in cities the world over.

Carefully selected metrics measured in four new data sets with ArcGIS software provide a comprehensive and consistent global and historical perspective on urban expansion. These data sets are:1. The built-up areas of a global sample of 120 cities with 100,000 people or more, 1990 and 2000, based on satellite images;2. Historic population density data in digital images for 20 U. S. cities, 1910–2000, based on census tracts;3. Built-up areas of a representative global sample of 30 cities, 1800–2000, from the set of 120 cities based on historic maps; and4. Urban land cover areas of the universe of 3,646 cities that had populations of 100,000 or more in 2000, based on satellite images.

The key findings show that on average, densities in developing countries are double those in Europe and Japan, and densities in Europe and Japan are double those of the United States, Canada, and Australia; and that on average, the annual growth rate of urban land cover was twice that of the urban population between 1990 and 2000. Most of the cities studied expanded their built-up area more than 16-fold in the twentieth century. At present rates of density decline, the world’s urban population is expected to double in 43 years, while urban land cover will double in only 19 years. The urban population of the developing countries is expected to double between 2000 and 2030 while the built-up area of their cities can be expected to triple.

The research suggests that preparation for the sustainable growth of cities in rapidly urbanizing countries should be grounded in four key components: the realistic projections of urban land needs; generous metropolitan limits; selective protection of open space; and an arterial grid of roads spaced one kilometer apart that can support transit. Making Room for a Planet of Cities provides both the conceptual framework and, for the first time, the basic empirical data and quantitative dimensions of past, present, and future urban expansion in cities around the world that are necessary for making minimal preparations for the massive urban growth expected in the coming decades.

Making Room for a Planet of Cities (PDF)

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In the mid-1980s, Solly Angel had a technological mini-vision. He saw in his mind’s eye a quarter-inch thick personal scale weighing a pound–a travel scale–and he decided to make it a reality, to bring it to market.

The Tale of the Scale: An Odyssey of Invention is a rare first-person account of the process of invention and design as it unfolds in the remaking of the familiar bathroom scale. It is rare because inventors seldom have the inclination to articulate their thought processes and to recount their experiences in great detail. Written by an inventor, the book stands apart from recent books about inventors.

Buy The Tale of the Scale in hardback or e-book formats.

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Housing Policy Matters: A Global Analysis unifies housing policy by integrating industrialized and developing-country interventions in the housing sector into a comprehensive global framework. One hundred indicators are used to compare housing policies and conditions in 53 countries. Statistical analysis confirms that–after accounting for economic development–enabling housing policies result in improved housing conditions.

Buy Housing Policy Matters.

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Observers of slums and squatter settlements in the Third World have often noted that, left to their own resources, poor people gradually improve their shelter over time. Poor as they are, the invest very considerable amounts of energy, resources, and ingenuity on the construction and improvement of their houses. Consequently, it has been suggested that government, which cannot build houses for everyone by itself, must recognize and legitimize these constructive efforts by removing obstacles and constraints to the house improvement and by providing essential public services. Given the freedom and the opportunity, people gradually mobilize their savings, their labor, their creative abilities and their social networks to house themselves.

Land for Housing the Poor (PDF).

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The proceedings of the International Conference on Low-Income Housing Technology and Policy, organized by the Asian Institute of Technology in Bangkok, Thailand on June 7-10, 1977. Low Income Housing: Technology and Policy consists of three volumes, edited by Shlomo Angel, Ricardo Pama and J.H. de Goede.

Buy Low Income Housing: Technology and Policy

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You can use this book to design a house for yourself with your family; you can use it to work with your neighbors to improve your town and neighborhood; you can use it to design an office, or a workshop, or a public building. And you can use it to guide you in the actual process of construction.

After a ten-year silence, Shlomo Angel and his colleagues at the Center for Environmental Structure are now publishing a major statement in the form of three books which will, in their words, “lay the basis for an entirely new approach to architecture, building and planning, which will we hope replace existing ideas and practices entirely.” The three books are The Timeless Way of Building, The Oregon Experiment, and this book, A Pattern Language.

At the core of these books is the idea that people should design for themselves their own houses, streets, and communities. This idea may be radical (it implies a radical transformation of the architectural profession) but it comes simply from the observation that most of the wonderful places of the world were not made by architects but by the people.

Buy or rent A Pattern Language.

Buy Urban Fields: A Geometry of Movement for Regional Science

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